If you wish further contacts, please send me a note at gary@garyascott.com.
I have held off sending this final update until Kepper Asset Management sent its latest Developed and Emerging Markets quarterly reports as they contain the most current four year projection of global markets.
The 79 page Developed Market quarterly report can be accessed here.
The 52 page Emerging Market quarterly report can be accessed here.
The most important feature I wanted to share is the KAM quarterly Total Return Projections.
The chart below shows our entire real-time forecasting history for the KAM Equally Weighted World Index, starting at the end of 1993.
Since Keppler began making these projections in 1993, the market has remained within the 20% band of projection for over 60% of the time. The World Index has never remained out of the 20% projection band for more than five years and as of now, the market indices as of December 31, 2022 are almost exactly where they were projected to be four years ago .
Last quarter, the KAM Equally Weighted World Index advanced 11.1 % almost exactly at the intrinsic value which we implicitly forecast four years ago.
Now Keppler’s three-to-five-year projections place the KAM Equally Weighted World Index to rise at a compound annual total return estimate of 7.2 % in local currencies. The upper-band estimate by December 31, 2026 implies a compound annual total return of 12.2 % while the lower-band estimate indicates a compound annual total return of 1.4 %.
These Keppler projections suggest that if an investor does as I do, (hold a portfolio of global stock market indices, and leave them alone) there is a minimal risk over the next four years. If markets only rise 1.4% (The lower band projection) some purchasing power may be lost as inflation is likely to be higher than a compounded 1.4%.
The growth will probably not be spread equally around the globe. Keppler’s projections suggest that Pacific Indices will do best, followed by Top Value Indices and then Europe, Africa and Far East (EAFE) indices. The EAFE is a broad market index of stocks located within countries in Europe, Australasia, and the Middle East. Developed by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) in 1969.
The US Indices are projected to have the lowest growth.
The Top Value markets are shown below.
My main investment at this time is in my health as at 76 years of age, I remain energetic, active, free of pharmaceuticals and appear to be disease free. I want to maintain this healthy state and am focusing more attention to meditation, yoga, hiking and biking. My exercise and nutritional routines are outlined in my “Shamanic Healing Secrets” report,
Amazon Prime members can obtain this report free at Amazon.com by clicking here.
I plan to accelerate a sustainable farming program and add a sustainable timber business this year at my North Carolina farm. This helps me get away from the madding crowd, the global political insanity and bring extra peace and quiet for my writing. I continue working on the “64th Symphony” You can read the “65th Octave” here.
If you want me to send update on the books progress, please send me a note at gary@garyascott.com
