From the Frying Pan Into the Fire

by | Jul 30, 2021 | Archives

Here is something we, as investors (and human beings) , should be fired up about.

Fires.

I remember traveling from Portland Oregon to the Oregon beaches as a young child.

The trip led through the Tillamook Burn which at that time had been Oregon’s largest forest fire.

Even though the fire had been over a decade past, the view was bleak.

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Tillamook Burn 1930s

Today that forest is back, but other forest fires in Oregon have been and are (the current Bootleg fire is already over 400,000 acres and still burning) bigger.

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Tillamook Burn recovered

Stewart Holbrook wrote about the Tillamook Burn and this quote struck me as worthy of consideration.

[Reforestation] can never compensate for that tragedy we call the Tillamook Burn, as somber a sight as to be viewed this side of the Styx. There they stand, millions of ghostly firs, now stark against the sky, which were green as the sea and twice as handsome, until an August day of 1933, when a tiny spark blew into a hurricane of fire that removed all life from 300,000 acres (120,000 ha) of the finest timber even seen.  It was timber, too, that had been 400 years in the making. It was wiped out in a few seething hours which Oregon will have reason to remember well past the year 2000.

To this day the forest stands powerless against the threat of wildfires.

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Bootleg Fire

The thoughts to consider from Holbrook’s writing include:

  • Those fires are consuming natural resources that took hundreds of years to grow.
  • We are powerless to stop these natural disasters.

The increase in frequency and size of forest fires are indications of the change that we, as investors and living souls, face.

Access to natural resources is changing and few of us (if any) will see the old ways again.

These fires are increasing global warming.

An article at MIT Technology review, “The pandemic slashed the West Coast’s emissions. Wildfires already reversed it” shows how nature’s forces are whipsawing the climate.

The pandemic effect: California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington saw fossil fuel emissions decline by around 69 million tons of carbon dioxide last year as the pandemic slashed pollution from ground transportation, aviation, and industry.

But: From July 1 to July 25, fires in those states produced about 41 million tons of carbon dioxide, according to data from the European Commission’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service.

The bigger picture: The numbers illustrate a troubling feedback loop. Climate change creates hotter, drier conditions that fuel increasingly frequent and devastating fires—which, in turn, release greenhouse gases that will drive further warming. The problem will likely grow worse in the coming decades across large parts of the globe.

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Image from Economist article “No safe place: The 3°C future”.

The evidence is clear, floods, storms and fires are more destructive now than since the beginning of the industrial revolution.

Our thoughts should be on how this change will shape the global economy and how we as investors can get ahead of this.

The Economist article says: ‘Greenhouse-gas emissions have produced a planet more than 1°C (1.8°F) warmer than it was in Burke’s pre-industrial days.

Unfortunately, 2021 will probably be one of the 21st century’s coolest years. If temperatures rise by 3°C above pre-industrial levels in the coming decades—as they might even if everyone manages to honour today’s firm pledges—large parts of the tropics risk becoming too hot for outdoor work. Coral reefs and the livelihoods that depend on them will vanish and the Amazon rainforest will become a ghost of itself. Severe harvest failures will be commonplace. Ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland will shrink past the point of no return, promising sea rises measured not in millimetres, as today’s are, but in metres.

On July 20th, as Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands and Switzerland were still coming to terms with the fact that a stationary system of storms had turned entire towns into rivers and shredded the surrounding countryside, hundreds of thousands of people in the Chinese province of Henan were evacuated in the face of floods of their own; the city of Zhengzhou saw a year’s worth of rain in three days.

The New York Times article “Tiny Town, Big Decision: What Are We Willing to Pay to Fight the Rising Sea?” (3) supports the ideas contained in my report “The Neapolitan Effect”.

The report shows how three factors, the pandemic, rising sea levels and modern technology are creating one of the largest migrations in the history of mankind.

This New York Times article shows the push being created by rising sea levels.

The problem is rising along coast lines around the world and along rivers where the banks are hit by swollen waters far beyond previous floods.

This problem raises a question that is reverberating along the American coastline as seas rise and storms intensify. “What price can be put on saving a town, a neighborhood, a home where generations have built their lives?”

This is a serious question as some beaches are shrinking very quickly displacing residents from families who have lived in coastal areas for many generations.

This struggle of fighting the water, along with with the high cost, has led many coastal owners to question whether its worth the fight. Others who simply cannot afford it, have to pack up and leave.

“The Neapolitan Effect” contends that this problem of rising sea levels will push a huge population inland and to higher ground.   The report also shows how to get ahead of this mass movement, that has already started, so when prices begin to scream upwards in the ares that benefit, you can enjoy excellent profits.

I strongly believe (and have invested heavily) in this migration .   I watched rising prices, not just sea levels, push people to and out of Naples, so I spotted the signs in other areas almost two decades ago.   That’s why my report is called the Neapolitan Effect as it explains what to look for and how to spot, where the movers will go.

Gary

 

Big Opportunity in Small Towns

Here’s why there big opportunity in small towns,

In 2017, my report “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” made several outrageous predictions about investing and living in Smalltown USA.  Readers of that report, who used this information, are cashing in with big profits now, four years after the fact.

It’s not too late!

Three recent Wall Street Journal front page stories show how profits have been made from predictions in my 2017 report “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” .

That report predicted the upcoming inflation and suggested investments that would survive change and combat the loss of the dollar’s purchasing power.

One Wall Street Journal confirms the inflationary problem in its article “Higher Prices Leave Consumers Feeling the Pinch” (1).

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The article points out how Janet Yellen was trying to walk back her comments admitting inflation.  The government will do just about anything to stop interest rates from rising and to hold back panic over the purchasing power of the US dollar.

This front page article sums up the situation succinctly:

Price tags on consumer goods from processed meat to dishwashing products have risen by double-digit percentages from a year ago, according to NielsenIQ.

Whirlpool Corp. WHR -2.01% freezers and dishwashers and Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. SMG -0.56% lawn and garden products are also getting costlier, the companies say. Some consumers are feeling stretched.

Kaitlyn Vinson, a program manager in Denver, said her recent $275 bill at a Costco Wholesale Corp. COST -1.16% store, which included razors and cotton pads on top of her typical grocery list, was more expensive than usual. Ms. Vinson said she switched from buying fresh to frozen fruit and vegetables because they are less expensive and last longer.

Kaitlyn Vinson said her recent bill at a Costco store was more expensive than usual. “We’re sacrificing the food that I really like to cook just to be cheaper,” she said.

The 2017 report also looked at the danger to pipelines in the US and explained how to protect against a failing US infrastructure.

The second Wall Street Journal article headline “U.S. Pipeline Shutdown Exposes Cyber Threat to Energy Sector” (2).

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That article starts: For years, security officials and experts have warned about the energy infrastructure’s susceptibility to cybercrime.

Why we cannot depend on governments.

“Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere”  warned (in 2017) to avoid total dependence on our national infrastructure.

In that report, I shared an experience we suffered at our North Carolina mountain home when a couple of workers digging a ditch with a backhoe accidentally breached a small pipeline.

That one small error shut down delivery of gasoline to a huge part of the state of North Carolina.  Gas stations had to limit the number of gallons we could buy or shut down totally.

Just one pipe… shut a huge section of the state… down.

Now we see how ransomware has affected the supply of gas on much of America’s East coast.

The third, Wall Street Journal headline was, “The Breakout Cities on the Forefront of America’s Economic Recovery”. (3)

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That third article says: Rising stars such as Greenville, S.C., Des Moines, Iowa, and Provo, Utah, built out vibrant economies even before the pandemic; now, they are drawing new workers and businesses.

The key feature in “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” was the potential of Smalltown USA.  Those who read the report and acted in 2017, 2018 and 2019 are seeing huge gains now.

So what do we do about this?

I explain how to protect purchasing power and beat inflation in my report  “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere”.  The report, published in 2017, predicted how the world would react to the pandemic and showed how to economically prepare for it.

I recently completed a followup report to “Live Anywhere – Earn Everywhere” called “The Neapolitan Effect” that explains how to to take advantage of the explosive growth that continues in two small towns in Ashe county North Carolina and Lake County Florida.

The “Neapolitan Effect” digs into the demographic, geographic, economic and social fundamentals that create small town opportunity so you can spot the same profit potential in small towns beyond just these two counties.

Before I put “The Neapolitan Effect” into our catalogue at $39.99, I would like to offer both the report “Live Anywhere-Earn Everywhere” (normally $39.99) and “The Neapolitan effect”  both for the price of one.

You can order both reports here for $39.99. 

Live Anywhere & Neapolitan Effect bundled: $39.99.

Gary

(1) www.wsj.com/articles/consumers-adjust-to-higher-prices

(2) www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-pipeline-shutdown-exposes-cyber-threat-to-energy-sector

(3) www.wsj.com/articles/the-breakout-cities-on-the-forefront-of-americas-economic-recovery

(4) www.wsj.com/articles/taiwan-defense-a-hard-problem-for-the-u-s-11612218797

 

(1) www.technologyreview.com/2021/07/27/1030134/west-coast-wildfires-wiped-out-pandemic-emissions-cuts

(2) www.economist.com/leaders/2021/07/24/a-3degc-world-has-no-safe-place

(3) www.nytimes.com/2021/03/14/climate/outer-banks-tax-climate-change.3

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