The Shell Games Grow

by | Feb 21, 2021 | Archives

Government’s response to a demographic problem creates increasing risk for you and me.

The demo graphic problem i old people wop have been promised retirement incomes that pensions can no longer afford.

Cities, states and nations are going to extreme lengths to fill the gap but this problem was already huge before the pandemic.  Reduced economies create lower tax income and compound the grief.

Governments at every level are figuring out shell games and shakedowns to balance their budgets.

pixabay

The New York Times article “To Plug a Pension Gap, This City Rented Its Streets. To Itself” shows one shell game already being played by city governments.

The article said: The City of Tucson, Ariz., decided last year to pay rent on five golf courses and a zoo — to itself.  In California, West Covina agreed to pay rent on its own streets. And in Flagstaff, Ariz., a new lease agreement covers libraries, fire stations and even City Hall.

They are risky financial arrangements born of desperation, adopted to fulfill ballooning pension payments that the cities can no longer afford. Starved of cash by the pandemic, cities are essentially using their own property as collateral of sorts to raise money to pay for their workers’ pensions.

It works like this: The city creates a dummy corporation to hold assets and then rents them. The corporation then issues bonds and sends the proceeds back to the city, which sends the cash to its pension fund to cover its shortfall. These bonds attract investors — who are desperate for yield in a world of near-zero interest rates — by offering a rate of return that’s slightly higher than similar financial assets. In turn, the pension fund invests the money raised by those bonds in other assets that are expected to generate a higher return over time.

If they can pull off the strategy, cities issuing these bonds can reduce their pension bills by an amount that’s the difference between what they earn and what they pay out. But as with any strategy based on long-term assumptions, there is risk.

The risk is that pension fund mangers won’t earn enough to cover the interest and ad to the pension. They may even lose.  This tactic is questionable as its being played out at the top of frothy global equity markets that are not likely to perform well over the next four to five years.

pixabay

US pensions could well explode over the demographic demands and risk being taken.

The risk is that pension funds won’t reap the miracle returns they desire.

The global market analysis we follow, Keppler’s Total Return Projections, suggest that the next four to five years will see modest global market growth.

These Keppler projections based on value analysis of markets started in 1994 and have been very accurate.

The chart below shows the entire real-time forecasting history for the KAM Equally Weighted World Index, starting at the end of 1993.

keppler

This last quarter the actual KAM Equally Weighted World Index is only 3.4% below the intrinsic value that Keppler forecast in December 2016.

The January 2021 projections was down by several percentage points compared to the September 2020 projection quarter-end last year.  The markets shot up so fast in late 2020 so they are simply not such good value now.

The current (December 31, 2020) projection is that world markets will see a compound annual total return estimate of 2.6% per annum over the next four years.  That projection is way down from the projection of 6.1% in September 2020.

The upper-band estimate implies a compound annual total return of 7.4% (down from 11.1% three months ago), while the lower-band estimate of  indicates a compound annual total return of minus 3.0% (down from positive 0.4% last quarter).

In other words global markets are overheated and won’t see significant growth in the 3 to 5 years ahead.

In addition the US market will see the worst results of all the major markets over the next several years.

Keppler’s projections show negative 3-5 year total returns for the MSCI USA Index for the first time since 2000.

keppler

Asia and Europe will be the best developed markets from now to 2024.

Asia and Europe will catch up with the terrific results in the US over the past 5 years.

The Wall Street Journal article “Underfunded and Under Pressure, U.S. Pensions to Keep Investing in China” suggests that pension managers agree that Asia is the place to be.

The article says: Large U.S. pension plans relying on ambitious returns to fill massive shortfalls aren’t finding it easy to steer clear of regulatory risk in China

U.S. state pension funds that invested in Ant Group Co. were stung when the financial technology firm’s initial public offering was suddenly pulled on orders of China’s president. But few of these investors are swearing off Chinese private markets, where they still hope to reap big returns.

Shock waves rippled through the investment world when China halted the initial public offering of Ant, which would have been the world’s biggest. The decision was made by President Xi Jinping after controlling shareholder Jack Ma infuriated government leaders by criticizing government financial regulation in an October speech,

For the past several years, the retirement savings of America’s police, firefighters and teachers have increasingly found their way to private companies in China such as Ant. Anxious to meet ambitious return targets in a low-yield world, large North American pension funds have committed growing sums to both global private-equity managers active in China and managers local to China, according to pension officials and their advisers and investment reports.

“From a broad level portfolio perspective, you almost have no choice but to think very seriously about going to parts of the world where there is a lot more growth,” Carlyle Group Chief Executive Kewsong Lee said at last month’s California State Teachers’ Retirement System board meeting when asked by Calstrs board Chairman Harry Keiley what role China should play in helping the fund meet its long-term return target of 7% a year.

“China represents much larger economic potential and growth, relatively speaking, to the rest of the world,” Mr. Lee said.

That reality is pushing U.S. state and local pension officials to learn to live with the risks and uncertainties of Chinese private markets.

That may have upset the projections of some pension funds planning to reinvest cash or shares they might receive in the aftermath of the IPO, said Ashby Monk, executive and research director of the Stanford Global Projects Center.

For large U.S. pension plans relying on ambitious returns to fill massive shortfalls, it may be hard to avoid putting themselves somewhat at the mercy of Chinese regulators. State- and local-government retirement plans are roughly $4.3 trillion short of the $9.1 trillion they need to pay promised future retirement benefits, according to the Federal Reserve.

So there we have it, cities borrowing from themselves to issues bonds to put into pension funds to be invested in high risk Chinese deals.

Pensions may not, probably will not be able to provide future benefits as promised.  This leaves many millions who will rely on this income at risk.  Prepare for the shortfall and the turmoil it will bring.

Gary

CHAOS CREATES MANY OPPORTUNITIES FOR YOU

Cash in on the new normal.

If the pandemic taught us anything it’s that the so called “experts” really don’t have a clue how to solve this problem. We cannot rely on their information. Instead, we need to plan for and prepare for our own “new normal” if we want to survive.

The pandemic has not been the real problem.

The global response to this viral outbreak is just a symptom of a world that’s sliding into a devastation and disorder.  The worst turmoil is still to come because of economic, social and demographic tensions that have been building for 70 years.

With mounting government debt, globally, the current economic system that has run the global economy for decades, is in decline and disorder.

The current social economic archetype has already killed millions and destroyed the finances and lives of far more.   Worldwide, unemployment is at an all-time high.  Many businesses have been destroyed.

Governments are trying to solve the problem by throwing money on the fire and are they are being crushed in debt in the process.

Yet, the problem is just a beginning, because al that holding the system together is low interest rates and a lack of belief in inflation.

Yet inflation is here and with it will come higher interest rates that can crush stock markets and ruin the ability of governments everywhere to pay their debts.

To survive the coming economic downturns, you’ll need to learn the importance of adjusting how you live, work, invest and take care of yourself for the next ten to fifteen years!
You can’t rely on governments to bail you out.

Adapt!

That’s exactly what Merri and I have been doing for the last 50 years.

3 d

We have learned the power of being able to adapt to constantly changing markets all over the world and created a not-so small fortune while doing so.  That’s why we’re uniquely qualified to teach you how to not just survive but to PROSPER during the challenging times ahead. Chaos always creates many opportunities for those who know how to spot them and take advantage of them. A good example has been the mass exodus from urban areas to more rural areas.

Since many are working from home, they can live anywhere. There is a shortage of good housing in rural areas now. Merri and I are buying then rehabbing houses to full the gap.  We saw this opportunity coming and jumped in early.

We let readers know of the risks of a pandemic, back in 2016.

Many are already enjoying a safer more secure and financially stable lifestyle already despite the lockdowns and crumbling economy.

Instead of waiting for things to get better, start preparing for things to get worse, much worse.

You also need to learn how to spot opportunities which are all around you. As the economy changes, the opportunities will change too.

That’s why Merri and I keep a constant pulse on opportunities worldwide and report our findings to a special club of unique individuals that we started over 30 years ago. For decades, this club has been called the International Club, but this year we renamed it the Pruppie Club.

What is a Pruppie?

Pruppieism, the new economic and social realism.  Pruppies, like Yuppies, expect everything to expand. They take advantage of every new benefit and technology they can. Pruppies enjoy using the fruits of our ancestor’s deliberations and labors to earn in this advanced technological world.

Pruppies, also, like Preppers, engage in activity that they love that will sustain them when society and the incredibly intricate weave of our global economy and society let us down.

We need to be both, Yuppies and Preppers, Pruppies!

Take profit from the incredible new technology that gives us super powers to earn and grow wealth. Be safe and secure, when social economic tidal waves like plagues, stagflation fascism and communism overwhelm the world.

Pruppies are prepared in case everything, everywhere, or at least everything relating to their income and savings fails and the fabric that surrounds their lives disintegrates into an unknown veil.

Yet a Pruppie’s preparation is not a sacrifice, but a joy as you will see.

Learn how you can become a Pruppie.

gary-scott-orange-grove

I’m no farmer but grow citrus so I’ll always have food to swap. Let me show you how to lock in your food supply.

EARLY ACCESS! We are changing more than the club’s name and you can be in the unique position as one of a select few who are charter members of our new Pruppie Club.

You’ll be the first to know about opportunities and trends all over the world in our bi-monthly report and monthly conference calls which are exclusively for members.

You’ll learn how to:

  • Create a sustainable income without a job or a pension – just in case you lose your job or there is a disruption in pension payments.
  • Learn how to make money working from home – wherever home might be.  A location independent business gives you the flexibility to move to a safer or more affordable location if necessary.
  • Turn your passion in to a profit.
  • How to create quick cash and lasting wealth when you don’t have any money to get started. This strategy can help you build a nest egg fast.
  • Learn easy ways to grow food, including beekeeping, hydroponic and greenhouses (if necessary, food can be used to trade for other services or to sell)
  • Natural healing and lifestyle changes to make now to avoid expensive medications later.
  • Alternative water sources including rainwater collection – just in case the municipal supply is not available for extended periods of time.
  • Alternative Heating and Power. Solar, wood, wind, and hydropower.
  • Where the opportunities are now and the best way to profit from them.
  • Communication beyond internet – how to stay in touch if the internet or power goes down. Protect against government and businesses from snooping around what you wrote and say.
  • Learn about safe social media sites.
  • Precious Metals, Crypto Currencies, and stock investing diversification strategies.
  • International living to reduce costs and gain more freedoms

All this and much more will be EXCLUSIVELY available to you as one of the select charter members of our Pruppie Club.

The regular prices for the International Club was $497 per year, but during this time of crisis we are dropping member ship to $249 .

I invite you to join those few who will become healthier, wealthier and more fulfilled in the decade ahead.  Become a Pruppie, one of the core persons who will glide through the destruction and be able to help the world restore order.

Ecuador-beach-condos

I’m no builder nor carpenter, but was partly responsible for creating these condos on Ecuador’s coast (above) and in Ecuador’s Andes (below), a decade before this expat community boomedFind out the trick for spotting trends like this early.

Ecuador real estate for sale

As an Elite Pruppie Member, you’ll get INSTANT ACCESS To:

Live Anywhere, Earn Everywhere (a $39.99 value). This 250 page report published in 2016 reveals ways to gain fulfillment doing what you love but how to also include something that will be useful if society and the incredibly intricate weave of the global economy and society fail.

This report has already helped many readers prepare for the pandemic in advance, but it’s not too late. the incredible special opportunities for future profit still exist.

Natural Healing the Shamanic Way (a $59.97 value).  Learn about #1: Nutrition, #2: Purification, #3: Exercise These three reports show how to gain better natural health. The foundation of all fulfillment, contentment, happiness and success is good health. Yet when it comes to health care, we may well be on our own. The way to escape the dangers of the high cost, deteriorating health care system, is to not need it. Declare health independence… and create natural good health. There are dozens of simple, really low costs steps that can improve health… eating, purification, exercise, even the way we think and don’t think when we sleep.

Super Spanish (a $79 Value).  One alternative to infrastructure deterioration and skyrocketing costs is to move abroad. The top choices include Panama, Ecuador and several other Spanish speaking countries. Super Spanish provides a way to almost instantly be able to communicate in Spanish. Thousands who have taken this course were creating Spanish sentences in just four hours.

The course uses special music to unlock your brain’s super powers and provides 17 easy lessons that give you a vocabulary of 4055 words you don’t have to memorize and will never forget. Within three days you have a base language that works and lets you become a fluent speaker of Spanish.

Purposeful Investing Course: ( a $99 Value).  A Good Value Stock Market Strategy. The analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short term ups and downs. This strategy is easy for anyone to follow and use. Pi analysis every share in 46 stock markets around the world and reveals the best value markets and provides contacts to managers and analysts and Country Index ETFs so almost anyone can create and follow their own strategy.

Because all shares in the Pi portfolio were in non USA stock markets, the return seemed to under perform due to a strong US dollar. Yet the return was still over 10% per annum. Now conditions are set for overperformance in the upcoming years.

 

Super Thinking Workshop (a $49 Value). Increase your mental agility with baroque music. Be smarter… more energetic…. healthier… more relaxed in 17 minutes a day.

 

Self Fulfilled: How to Have a Pinnacle Career with an at home self-publishing business (a $79 Value). In this era, our experience is worth more than the cost of getting it. We are not worn out at 50 or 55 or 65 or more. These can be our best years. Make the rest of your life the best time of your life. Turn your passion into profit with a mission.

I have no hatchery but learned how to raise trout like this, for fun, profit and a guaranteed protein supply.  Learn how to turn passions into protein.

trout

THERE’S MORE…

BI-MONTHLY REPORTS. Exclusively for Pruppie Club members. Best practices to prosper, unique opportunities, and better ways to survive the economic collapse. The report will feature what other subscribers are doing too. We can all learn from each other.

MONTHLY CONFERENCE CALLS! I will talk about the latest news and trends to help you jump on opportunities. This will not be about the doom and gloom that surrounds you. These one-hour calls are your chance to ask questions and share ideas too. ONLY Pruppie members will have access to the replay of all conference calls.

TWO BONUS REPORTS: Five Ways to Make Money With Real Estate Even You Don’t Have Any Cash or Credit eBook. The techniques in this ebook could help you make $3,000 to $5000 per month without a job. 



This bonus is Jackie Lange’s ebook on how to generate cash without a big investment.

Jackie’s book is a step-by-step guide for making money with real estate with less than $10 invested, not buying the house, and no repairs….yet still making at least $5000.

She made $30,000 in three days on her last flip deal.

Even if people don’t want to make a business out of this, it is a fast, low-risk way to generate cash

Fund Your Freedom Overseas eBook – Learn how to make money working from your home anywhere in the world. These are all location independent business ideas.

jackie

GET READY!

Enormous, economic, social, political and productivity change was already in the process.  The pandemic however has accelerated and accentuated the process. You still have time to join the few who are left standing from the 2020 disaster.

You still have time to become one who will prosper during the 2020 decade. You can be one of a small elite group who will be able to help restore a healthy world order. The world will be very different from what we have known for the past seventy years, but when looked at in a framework of longer history… it’s the same old tale.

The last couple of millennia are filled with stories of empires rising and falling.  There are basic conditions in each of these tales.

  • First the idea of debt loses its real meaning and rising to levels that are unsustainable.
  • Interest rates charged for debt fall to extremely low levels so the idea of investing for a known amount stops making sense.
  • Central monetary authorities replace innovation and increased productivity as activators of the economy.
  • Disparity of wealth widens dramatically and the spread increases.
  • There is so much divisiveness in politics within countries that social and political conflicts spiral.

We’re seeing these changes rapidly happening now!

Fwd: gary-scott-tipis

I learned how to turn land into income producing property cheap and cashed in on the glamping craze a decade before the word was invented.  I want to share this trick with you.

Social and economic deterioration restricts safety, lifestyle, well-being and peace of mind. Social and economic shifts of this nature reduce the purchasing power of income.

Inflation, for example puts pensions and savings at risk. 

Growing deception allows manipulation of medical care, finances, the value of homes, how cars are bought, the price of gas, the education and raising of children, the food we buy and eat, the shows watched and the ways we work and play.

A very large and growing part of the public throughout the Western world no longer believes in the integrity of local or national government, law enforcement, health care, banking, pensions, legal systems, educational processes, media or church, just to name a few.

However, mistrust of anything authorities say has become so deeply rooted that even health assurances as serious as the pandemic have not been believed.

I invite you to join Merri and me in expecting the world to get better… to live and earn based on that expectation but…  to also prepare for bad times as well as good.  Just in case… the world goes sideways… we will still survive and prosper.

We do not give up anything much.  We can enjoy the good parts of the new economy, as we protect ourselves from what can be bad.

Let me be clear.  I expect that the world will get better, at least for the few who adapt and avoid the dangers that the changes from the COVID pandemic will bring.

The wealth of the world, albeit with inequality, will continue to grow.  This collapse of the global economy will bring an incredible new opportunity for those who know what to do.  These profit making avenues offer enormous income potential and even work well in disaster scenarios. Join the Pruppie Club so you can wake up every day knowing that you are prepared and in charge of your destiny.

gary scott

I’m no doctor but have learned how to avoid and survive the excessively expensive western health system and its hidden agendas.  See a simple $19.95 trick  used when the COVID-`19 symptoms appeared.

JOIN the PRUPPIE CLUB HERE.  $249  and $99 a year automatic renewal, but you can cancel at any time.

(1) www.nytimes.com/2021/02/16/business/dealbook/pension-borrowing-retirement.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20210217&instance_id=27179&nl=todaysheadlines&regi_id=48317279&segment_id=51787&user_id=208b2cbe62eb7b536babab791d172bc7

(2) www.wsj.com/articles/underfunded-and-under-pressure-u-s-pensions-to-keep-investing-in-china-11613730603?mod=itp_wsj&mod=djemITP_h

 

Search

Recent Posts

Featured Courses