This analysis, using calculations from every share in over 20 stock markets around the world looks at which markets offer the best value. Here’s a short summary of what happened in developed markets world wide last quarter.
Recent Global Equity Market Developments & Outlook
Global equity markets finished the volatile year 2020 on a strong note. In the final quarter, the cap-weighted MSCI World Index (ND) gained 12.4 % in local currencies, 14.0% in US dollars and 9.2 % in euros.
The MSCI World Index with net dividends reinvested (December 1969 = 100) now stands at LC 5,983, $8,008 and €3,473. In 2020, the MSCI World Index was up 13.5% in local currencies, 15.9% in US dollars and 6.3% in euros.
The average developed market—as measured by the KAM Equally Weighted World Index—gained 1.2% in local currencies and 8.0% in US dollars last year, but due to a strong euro, lost 0.9% in euros.
The US dollar finished 2020 at its lowest level of the year, after the euro advanced another 4.3% to 1.2236 vs. the US dollar last quarter.
In 2020 the euro was up 9.0% from 1.1225.
There was no place to hide for the bears in the last quarter of 2020: All twenty-three markets included in the MSCI World Index advanced.
Austria (+41.2 %), Spain (+22.4%) and Italy (+17.3%) were up most, while New Zealand (+3.9%), Switzerland (+4.1%) and Sweden (+5.0%) gained least.
In 2020, fourteen markets advanced, and nine markets declined. Denmark (+31.4%), the U.S.(+20.7%) and the Netherlands (+14.0 %) performed best in 2020, while Belgium (-15.7%), the United Kingdom (-13.2%) and Spain (-12.6%) came in last.
Performance is in local currencies unless mentioned otherwise.
The table below shows how the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to selected indices as of the end of December 2020, based on important measures (current numbers for book value, 12-month trailing numbers for the other variables—no forecasts).
In addition, Kepppler shows the MSCI World Index at its all-time high valuation at the end of the last millennium and at its all-time low valuation in September 1974.
The Top Value Model Portfolio based on Keppler’s Top Value Strategy (December1969=100), using the most attractively valued national MSCI country indices as hypothetical investment vehicles, finished the fourth quarter 2020 up +18.5% in US dollars.
In 2020, the Top Value Model Portfolio was down 4.7 % in local currencies, 0.2 % in US dollars and 8.5% in euros.
There were no changes in Keppler country ratings last quarter. The Top Value ModelPortfolio now holds the eight“Buy”-rated markets Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom at equal weights.
According to Keppler’s long term analyses, an equally weighted combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.
While the average developed market—as measured by the KAM Equally Weighted World Index—is now under-valued by 29% vs. the cap-weighted MSCI World Index, based on traditional valuation measures, the Top Value Markets are now undervalued by 39% compared to the MSCI World (Standard) Index, by 51% compared to the MSCI USA Index and by a whopping 68% compared to the MSCI World Growth Index.
We also sent our Pi subscribers a review of three special Top Value markets that offer extra value (and income) now. Subscribe to Pi (see how below) and learn about these three special value markets now.
Self Publishing Opportunity in the Remote Work EraThere has never been so many benefits from working at home. Writing and self publishing are perfect for an home business.
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The foundation of human society is the ability to communicate ideas through words. Words support a framework of love, hate and desire and all the emotions throbbing through the heartbeat of mankind.
Writing builds shelters against the storms of stagnation and creates progressive energy that artistically leads us from the tyrannical grasp of existing thought into new dimensions and ideas.
Marco Polo photo
Take Marco Polo and the impact he had on changing the thought process of the Western world.
Marco Polo was a merchant and an explorer. He saw wonders when he ventured into the Eastern world. When he shared these wonders it altered the entire way that mankind in Europe lived… from the introduction of gun powder to paper money.
Yet what made Marco famous was his ability to share these innovations due to his writing!
Biography.com says of Marco Polo’s exploits (bolds are mine): Just a few years after his return to Venice, Marco commanded a ship in a war against the rival city of Genoa. He was eventually captured and sentenced to a Genoese prison, where he met a fellow prisoner and writer named Rustichello. As the two men became friends, Marco told Rustichello about his time in Asia, what he’d seen, where he’d traveled and what he’d accomplished. His stories were soon committed to paper and eventually published as a book called The Description of the World,
The book made Marco, who was released from prison in 1299, a celebrity. It was printed in French, Italian and Latin, becoming the most popular read in Europe. But few readers allowed themselves to believe Marco’s tale. They took it to be fiction, the construct of a man with a wild imagination. The work eventually earned another title: Il Milione (“The Million Lies”). Marco, however, stood behind his book. He also moved on with his life. After his release from prison, he returned to Venice, where he married, raised three daughters and, for some 25 years, carried on the family business. Marco died at his home in Venice on January 8, 1324. As he lay dying, friends and fans of his book paid him visits, urging him to admit that his book was fiction. Marco wouldn’t relent. “I have not told half of what I saw,” he said.
Marco’s desire to earn more money, his travels and adventures were the foundation of his destiny, but his writing was his legacy. Here is one more excerpt from Biography.com.
In the centuries since his death, Marco Polo has received the recognition that failed to come his way during his lifetime. So much of what he claimed to have seen has been verified by researchers, academics and other explorers. Even if his accounts came from other travelers he met along the way, Marco’s story has inspired countless other adventurers to set off and see the world. Two centuries after Marco’s passing, Christopher Columbus set off across the Atlantic in hopes of finding a new route to the Orient. With him was a copy of Marco Polo’s book.
Writing to sell is one of the most powerful forms of marketing and marketing is what we do in every aspect of life… every day.
The heart of all events requires marketing. We market ourselves, our business, our thoughts ideas and beliefs all the time. In business, marketing covers strategic planning, product design, packaging, distribution, advertising, public relations, promotions and sales. Marketing is the process by which anything and everything, product, service, idea, person is introduced and promoted. Without marketing, you may be or have something great, but no one knows it.
All marketing begins with writing… whether, a speech, picture, video, movie, advertisement, announcement, banner, jingle, song… the birth place is in the written word.
Why words are better than cash.
You can turn words into cash. Mix in a little wisdom and deliver benefits. The value of honest word’s never deflate. A dollar, decades ago, was worth 15 greenbacks today… or more. Useful, wise words, even hundreds of years aged… are often worth more now.
Take these 153 year old words: “Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.”
Has time diminished the value of these words?
Sometimes Merri’s and my writing led us into incredible adventures.
Here I am with Merri and an Ecuadorian Yatchak deep in the Llanganatis Jungle creating a shamanic tour.
We even built a…
Yet during the pandemic we have been able to continue sitting away from the madding crowd in our cabin on Little Horse Creek and at our Florida farm.
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