It’s Bull that It’s a Bear

by | Oct 16, 2014 | Archives

The next big 17 year bull market is almost here.

We are just back from sharing a great weekend in Quebec with readers and our friends at ENR Asset Management and Jyske Bank.  Delegates at our annual October International Investing Seminar were warned that the US market was ready to correct but that most investors have their expectations turned upside down.

The thundering herd believes that the last year has been a bull market. They think that a bear is on the way.   Delegates learned that this is not the case and that the upcoming correction could offer equity deals of a lifetime.

We had three days of intense talks in Montreal, then headed north on the train through the countryside to Quebec City.

We rode through woodlots and past streams between…

autumn colors

rich grain fields and farmland.

autumn colors

There we enjoyed the sense of Quebec’s last 400+ years of history.

quebec

We walked and walked and walked through Old Quebec City and cruised the St. Lawrence River.

quebec

We talked a lot about what has happened to North America and mankind’s lessons learned over this time.

Thinking about history is vital to investing.  As Sir Winston Churchill said: “Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”

One short term slice of history that represented a main theme in the seminar was the repetition of 17 year cycles in the Dow Jones Industrial Index.

We looked at these cycles and one reader kindly charted the cycle so we can see how steady this history has been in the past.

dow chart

Click on Dow chart to enlarge.

History suggests that this correction is just one of several in the current 17 year bear sideways market and that the next Golden Era bull market should start in about three years.

We have to survive this correction, but those who wisely see downturns at this time as periods of great opportunity might be like the few who arrived along the St. Lawrence four centuries ago and said Wow! What an opportunity!

Lighten your weighting in equities now.  Take profits.  Be ready to begin accumulating.

Next course looks at  how to earn and save and get ready for the next bull through self publishing.  See details of this course here.

We’ll review more details of the Montreal seminar in upcoming posts, but the message here is to get ready!  A time of truly great opportunity is ahead. We should start preparing how for the bull ahead.

Gary

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