This note from a reader stimulates thoughts about value. Gary… brutal negative metals action taking place. crude as well to some extent. silver just broke 23.50 and gold dropped 9% down to 1360 the sharpest drop since 1983. This begs the question: is this an indication that something major is about to happen?
My reply: One of our investment foundations is that periods of high performance are followed by periods of low performance.
I was a huge gold and silver bug in the 1970s and learned many lessons… luckily to the positive. The biggest lesson was that gold’s price is pretty unpredictable in the short and medium term. Based on that I sopped investing in gold. The activity in gold appears to me to be similar to the metals action in the 1970s-early 80s and could just well be a pattern where human nature pushes a price way too high and then way too low.
Take a look at the Kitco long term chart of gold chart above and see how the run up, the double peak at a high and the peak down from the 80s crash is somewhat similar to the 1970s run up, peak and crash. If this theory holds true… then we should expect a deep correction on gold and for gold’s price to remain extended. Since this is such an extended cycle and because US price controls mask the previous cycle we might not know better for 30 years. So I accumulate my gold as insurance and hope I’ll never need it and will be lucky enough to pass it onto my children.
Having tracked gold for over 40 years I have seen and heard it all. My conclusion is that gold should be held as insurance and as a store of long term purchasing power protection.
If you want to hold gold outside the country where you live or in a safe place check with ASI Precious Metal Direct. Or call 877-339-8472.
Stocks Have a More Predictable Value
Share prices can be compared to their history as can gold… but then one can also examine share prices versus return on investment, yield, price earnings and price to cash flow.
This is why we track the global share analysis of Keppler Asset management.
Here is the spring 2013 value update for developed equity markets around the world.
The best way to invest globally is to invest in countries that offer the best equity value. This is why once a quarter we look at a major and emerging equity market valuation analysis by Michael Keppler. Michael’s firms are the best when it comes to value analysis of stock markets.
Here is an update on the values of major stock markets as of April 2013 by Keppler Asset Management.
If you are a new multi currency subscriber learn about Keppler Asset Management here.
Recent Developments & Outlook
The above-average total returns in Global Equities from 2012 carried over into the New Year. The MSCI World Total Return Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1969 = 100) finished the first quarter up +9.8 % in local currencies), up +7.7 % in dollars and up +10.6 % in euro respectively.
Over the last 15 months, the MSCI World Index was up 27.0 % in local currencies, 24.8 % in US dollars and 26.1 % in Euros.
The Euro lost 2.6 % versus the US dollar in the first quarter and, at the end of March, stood at 1.2841 (USD/EUR), down 1.1 % compared with its level of 1.2982 at year-end 2011.
Twenty-one markets advanced in the first quarter, three markets declined. Japan (+21.4 %) had the highest return, followed by Greece (+17.1 %) and Ireland (+15.6 %). Italy (-7.4 %), Spain (-3.1 %) and Austria (-2.1 %) – the only three developed markets with negative returns – performed worst last quarter.
Over the last 15 months, Belgium (+53.6 %), Japan (+47.6 %) and Denmark (+38.4 %) performed best, while Israel (-3.1 %), Spain (-1.7 %) and Italy (+2.6 %) came in last.
Performance is in local currencies, unless mentioned otherwise.
There were no changes in our performance ratings last quarter. The Top Value Model Portfolio now holds the ten “Buy”-rated markets Australia, Austria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Norway, Singapore and the United Kingdom at equal weights. According to our analyses, a combination of these markets offers the highest expectation of long-term risk-adjusted performance.
The table below shows how the Developed Markets Top Value Model Portfolio compares to the MSCI World Index, the Equally Weighted World Index, the MSCI Europe Index and the MSCI US Index as of March 31, 2013 based on selected variables (current numbers for book value; 12-month trailing numbers for the other variables – no forecasts).
Global equities continue to be attractively valued compared with current and historic valuation ratios and rates of return.
The chart below shows the entire real-time forecasting history of Keppler Asset Management Inc. for the Equally Weighted World Index.
Our numbers are based on relationships between price and value over the previous 15 years. The chart includes two remarkable episodes: the five-year period (1997-2001) during which the Equally Weighted World Index stayed above the upper valuation band and the period starting in October 2008, when the Equally Weighted World Index fell below the lower valuation band, where it has stayed ever since.
Our implicit three-to-five-year projection indicates that the Equally Weighted World Index is expected to rise to 12,112 from its current level of 7,483 in three to five years for a compound annual total return of 12.8 % in local currencies – down from 13.6 % last quarter.
The upper-band estimate of 14,535 by March 31, 2016 implies a compound annual total return of 18.1 %, while the lower-band estimate of 9,690 corresponds to a compound total return of 6.4 % p.a.
Growth rates of important fundamentals have stabilized last quarter. Annual book value growth for the Equally Weighted World Index in local currencies is up from 6.8 % at year-end 2012 to 8.5 % as of the end of March. Earnings growth went from 1.3 % at the end of last year to 2.1 % and annual Cash Flow and Dividend growth at the end of March stood at 4.8 and 2.8 %, respectively. With fiscal policies becoming more restrictive in many countries, the arguments for rising stock prices have not changed lately. They focus on (1) a continuation of monetary easing, (2) opportunity costs, i.e. the lack of investment alternatives – basically all major asset classes (commodities, precious metals, real estate and, most of all, bonds) have seen major bull markets since the beginning of this century, and (3) an expansion of valuation multiples for common stocks. In January (Developed Markets Country Selection, Winter 2013) I pointed out that the process of multiple expansion is underway. This trend has now continued in the first quarter 2013. The price/earnings ratio of the Equally Weighted World Index bottomed in September 2011 at 10.8 and had moved up to 14.2 by December 2012. Its latest reading at the end of March was 15.5.
Michael Keppler New York, April 12, 2013
Multi Currency subscribers can see the entire 85 page report that values all developed stock markets as of April 2013 in our Borrow Low-Deposit High – Multi Currency Update.
Subscribers to Borrow Low Deposit High Multi Currency Report click on your password protected page here.
Enroll as a subscriber Order “Borrow Low Deposit High – How to Use the Multi Currency Investment Sandwich. $79”
The best way to protect purchasing power is to have the ability to earn. Learn how to earn by writing to sell.
Seven P Secrets of Self PublishingWhen you write, you can work anywhere.
Here I am working poolside in the winter, at our Florida farm.
Here I am with our hound Ma, working during the summer at our North Carolina farm.
Learn how to earn everywhere, while living anywhere you choose. I have been able to earn by writing in Hong Kong, England, the Isle of Man, Dominican Republic and Ecuador to name a few of the places I have lived. Anywhere I am, I am able to work.
All I need is my laptop.
That’s all you need too… a laptop to be free!
Before computers, a pencil and pad did the job.
Freedom is just one benefit you can gain from a laptop business.
Another benefit is income. Writing has brought me both our farms in Florida and North carolina, free and clear… plus a lot more.
Another good example of earning potential is my friend Hugh Howey. He was working for $10 an hour in a book store when he self published his novel Wool, typing in a storage room during his lunch breaks.
Soon he was earning over $100,000 a month on Amazon.com. This helped secure a six-figure book deal from Simon & Schuster, and an option for film by Ridley Scott, director of Blade Runner and Alien.
That’s what he’s doing now.
Hugh and I playing chess (he beats me badly).
Writers like Hugh are great inspirations.
A couple of years ago Hugh left Florida, and moved to South Africa. He had a sailing catamaran built for him and now can sail the world while he continues to write.
Hugh explained it like this: And that’s the miracle of working as a writer: I can do it from anywhere and everywhere. The past few years, I’ve done a lot of writing from airplanes and airports while on business trips abroad. SAND was entirely written overseas while traveling through seven different countries; I think it’s a better story because of those inspirations. In upcoming years, I may be writing near your home port.
Hugh’s a super star writer and his success could not happen to a more deserving and talented person. He pours enormous energy into being worthy of his readership. But you do not have to be a million dollar a year earner or a traveler to benefit from writing.
The good news is… you do not need a huge success to have a rich and fulfilled lifestyle. Self Publishing can bring you a life that most people only dream of, as a journeyman writer, instead of a super star.
May I hastily add that the path to stardom begins as a journeyman… so the journeyman’s path brings success without stardom… but can also lead to stardom.
What most success stories like Hugh’s rarely explain is the many hours of writing that was devoted before their self published book sales soared. Hugh, like most writers were journeymen first. Stardom came later.
Here are sevens secrets that can help you become a journeyman writer.
The secrets are a writer’s armory of tools that allows almost anyone to create successful publications for income, freedom and fulfillment.
Take Merri’s and my publishing business as an example.
Merri and I are not writing stars. We are journeymen who have for more than 40 years, year in and year out, earned solid income writing and self publishing dozens of publications about multiple subjects.
Some years that income has been more than solid… over a million dollars. Yet in terms of stardom, we are hardly known.
In a moment you’ll see why that’s fine for us and probably will be for you too.
First some history.
Merri became involved in self publishing over 40 years ago… first helping a veterinarian publish a book on a very specific market… animal acupuncture. Then she showed a needle point artist how to sell more books to an even more specific audience… “needle point enthusiasts” about her needle point work to an audience larger than the population of the city she lived in. This led Merri to eventually become Executive Editor of an award winning magazine in Florida.
My story allowed Merri and me to work and live from Hong Kong to London to Europe to Eastern Europe, then the Caribbean and then Ecuador… making millions in the process of following our adventures… having fun… while helping a large readership adapt to a rapidly changing world.
That’s what self publishing can bring, profit, adventure and fulfillment, a great feeling of worth and wonder.
Self Publishing has created exactly the lifestyle we desire allowing us to span the world and work with meaning and purpose.
Self Publishing has become a new business art form.
The seven secrets can help you start your own self publishing business now.
Everything in publishing is new and exciting and changing. Publishing is being recreated by the wonderful power of destructive technology.
Everything is new… except the seven secrets.
Change in the publishing industry is disturbing many. We love this evolution due to these seven secrets we call the 7Ps. The 7 Ps are so fundamental to writing and publishing that new technology enhances rather than reduces their power.
The First P is Passion.
Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it AND create income with self publishing. This can be your direct ticket to the kind of fulfillment you’ve always wanted.
Whether you want to travel the world or live as a recluse, work 12 hours a day or not work much at all, you can set your schedule to succeed, if you’re willing to learn these seven secrets.
You can start part-time with any dream, passion, and budget. Once you’ve created a product, you’ll enjoy the “multiple effect” of producing profits over and over again.
So the question is… What do you love to do?
What’s Your Passion: An example is that thirty years ago, a client of Merri’s had a passion to help people who were in pain? He published a series of pamphlets explaining various chiropractic disorders in very simple terms. For example: “What Is Whiplash?”
The pamphlets contained solid information, but were simple 5″ x 7″ brochures with drawings and explanations. He sold them with a rack to chiropractors, who put them in their offices for patients to read. These little self-published items sold year in and year out for decades.
There are thousands of ideas of this sort that can lead to big business. It’s just a matter of defining and then acting on your passion.
Although I can work when I please and go where I wish, for me the most important reason for being a publisher is the satisfaction it brings.
I love the projects I take on, so work doesn’t feel like, well… work.
What do you love? If you love golf, then you can write and sell publications about golf. Love travel, fishing, dogs, dolls, or art? Write and sell publications in these fields.
Are you concerned about crime, war, poverty or environmental issues? You can publish information products that help reduce these concerns.
Would you like to help the world be a more spiritual place? Publish a newsletter, write a book (or hire someone to write it for you), record a tape… publish something that enlightens people.
Whatever your passion, you can immerse yourself in it and earn income by publishing for ereaders, print on demand, CDs, lists, bound books, or any format you choose.
Be immersed in your passion and get paid well for it.
This is why stardom is not the main goal for most writers and self publishers. Extra income, more freedom and fulfillment are usually more than enough enough.
The seven Ps are:
#4: Profitably Priced Product
#5: Prospecting Pathway
The first time I exposed others to the secrets in Self Publishing was in a weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar. We offered the camp for $1,500. 80 delegates enrolled. People from all walks of life attended—chiropractors, businessmen, investors, doctors, realtors, inventors, airline pilots, engineers, and housewives.
Merri and I were so overwhelmed by the response, we decided to make it available to a larger audience. We created a written course based on our current self publishing activity called “Self Fulfilled – How to be a Self Publisher.” Then we recorded the weekend “Writer’s Camp” seminar.
Thousands have used the course as it has evolved over the decades.
Writing to sell is one of the most powerful forms of marketing and marketing is what we do in every aspect of life… every day.
The heart of all events requires marketing. We market ourselves, our business, our thoughts ideas and beliefs all the time. In business, marketing covers strategic planning, product design, packaging, distribution, advertising, public relations, promotions and sales. Marketing is the process by which anything and everything, product, service, idea, person is introduced and promoted. Without marketing, you may be or have something great, but no one knows it.
All marketing begins with writing… whether, a speech, picture, video, movie, advertisement, announcement, banner, jingle, song… the birth place is in the written word.
Why words are better than cash.
You can turn words into cash. Mix in a little wisdom and deliver benefits. The value of honest word’s never deflate. A dollar, decades ago, was worth 15 greenbacks today… or more. Useful, wise words, even hundreds of years aged… are often worth more now.
Take these 153 year old words: “Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.”
Has time diminished the value of these words?
Sometimes Merri’s and my writing led us into incredible adventures.
Here I am with Merri and an Ecuadorian Yatchak deep in the Llanganatis Jungle creating a shamanic tour.
Yet during the pandemic we have been able to continue sitting away from the madding crowd in our cabin on Little Horse Creek and at our Florida farm.
There is a possibility that Merri and I know more about writing from home than 99.9% of the people in the world. We have been at this for over 50 years now and thousands have taken our online correspondence course on how to create your own self publishing business.
A writing business not only creates unusual profit opportunity now… but can create income for a lifetime!
The course “Self Fulfilled” shows how Merri I and have created riches and a lifestyle beyond our wildest imagination and shares steps you can take to create a profitable and fun business.
This course shares how we have done this… what we did right… what we did wrong… how you can get started and what you can do much better than we have.
To help you start, I have created a special streamlined offer… our course on how to be a self publisher with all the frills removed at a 75% discount.
Self Fulfilled is normally $299. Thousands have paid that price. The streamlined course is only $79.
GUARANTEED. Even At This Low Price, We’ll Still Accept All the Risk!
We completely guarantee the program.
Order Self Publishing: Your Complete Business Plan for becoming a self publisher and take a full 30 days to put it through its paces. That way you can follow my simple process and start seeing the results for yourself.
If you’re not completely convinced that this information is so powerful that it can help you quickly develop income through writing to sell—all you have to do is let us know and you’ll receive a complete refund of every penny of your investment.
Our publishing business has brought us more wealth, satisfaction, fun and friendship than we ever imagined possible. And now we want to share our knowledge and secrets with anyone who has a desire to experience this way of life.
Whether you are an engineer, doctor, housewife, business owner, or retiree… self-publishing offers a way to make a six- or seven-figure income by turning your passion into profit.
Don’t miss this special opportunity. Order Self Fulfilled How to be a Self Publisher today if you want to cash in on the satisfying, profitable and exciting lifestyle that publishing can bring despite and in fact because of trouble in the world.
Self Fulfilled Special $79
Self Publishing 2021 discounted to $79 - using coupon code SELFPUB at checkout to immediately save $220 off the regular price of $299.