Markets have collapsed globally creating some great values. As this opportunity ripens, be sure to invest in markets that represent good value.
This is why we continually watch global market values carefully.
Here is a summary of the November to December 2008 Major Market Value Review of Keppler Asset Management.
Recent Developments & Outlook
Equity markets continued to lose ground in November. After having given up 10.8 % in September and 16.4 % in October, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Total Return Index declined an additional 6.1 % in November.
Year-to-date (through the end of November 2008), the MSCI World Index has lost 39.3 % in local currencies, 42.6 % in US dollars and 33.8 % in euros.
The euro finished last month almost unchanged versus the US dollar and now stands at 1.2689 (USD/EUR).
As in the previous two months, there was basically no place to hide in November, even though Sweden eked out a tiny gain in its local currency. All other seventeen markets covered here declined.
Hong Kong (-0.6 %) and Singapore (-1.1 %) came in second and third after Sweden (+0.1 %).
Austria (-14.5 %), Belgium (-10.4 %) and Norway (-11.7 %) performed worst.
An ugly picture presents itself also year-to-date: all Major Markets declined
during the first 11 months. The best markets — again, those which lost least — were Canada (-29.5 %), the United Kingdom (-31 %) and Switzerland (-31.4 %).
Austria (-65.5 %), Belgium (-65.1 %) and Norway (-56 %) came in near or at the bottom year-to-date. All performance numbers are in local currencies, unless mentioned otherwise.
There was no change in our performance ratings last month. The Top Value Model Portfolio holds the nine “Buy”-rated markets at equal weights. According to our analyses, these markets offer the highest expectation of long-term risk-
These nine “Buy”- rated markets are Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom at equal weights.
Keppler’s SELL CANDIDATES (Low Value) are: Canada, Denmark, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland , U.S.A.
Keppler’s NEUTRALLY RATED MARKETS are: Austria , Australia , Japan , Netherlands, Norway , Sweden .
Remember that the overall market value is just one of many filters we should use when we review value. The seven steps we use in our reviews include
1: Are the shares traded in a good value market?
#2: Does the share trade at fair Price to Earnings and Price to Cash Flow ratios?
#3: Does the share pay a good value dividend?
#4: Do the share have a good value relative to their previous price?
#5: Does the company have rising earnings?
#6: Has the share price been rising?
#7: Is the company’s management good and is their product or service line in a wave of the future
Michael Keppler also reminds investors not to misinterpret the investment analysis implicit in the Country Selection Strategy. A country is BUY-rated based on the valuation levels reflected in the MSCI benchmark index of country. A BUY rating therefore does NOT imply that any stock in that country would be considered an attractive investment.
To invest according to the Country Selection Strategy it is necessary to
construct diversified, risk-controlled, representative country portfolios in
every BUY rated country, weighting each country approximately equally in the
overall portfolio. It is not appropriate to instruct a stockbroker to simply to select stocks in the BUY rated countries.
For more details on Keppler’s analysis, contact Roderick Cameron at 1-212-245-4304 or email firstname.lastname@example.org
Join Merri, me and Peter Laub of Jyske Global Asset Management at OUR INTERNATIONAL INVESTING & BUSINESS COURSE IN ECUADOR. We review economic conditions, Ecuador real estate, my entire portfolio plus investing and business ideas for the months ahead.
Join us at a course in Cotacachi or on Ecuador’s coast this winter.
On our last coastal real estate tour we viewed this luxury hotel front…
Here are delegates working hard at viewing.
Plus we saw land and a next door house for sale.
We also saw this Bahia Coco Bongo Hostal for sale (the owner says she has $110,000 in it).
Here delegates view a 15 room hotel for sale, with an asking price of $60,000.
Plus we saw this potential Bed & breakfast. $90,000 asking.
Better still join us all year in Ecuador! See our entire schedule of 26 courses, tours, mingos and expeditions we’ll conduct in 2009.