Recent Developments & Outlook
In solidarity with the Major Markets, Emerging Markets equities declined sharply last month. This month the Morgan Stanley Capital Index (MSCI) Emerging Markets Total Return Index lost 10 % in US dollars and 11.2 % in euros.
Year to date, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is down 11.8 % in US dollars and 18.1 % in euros.
All three regional indices declined: Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) was down 7.3 %, followed by Latin America (-7.7 %) and Asia (-12.5 %).
Year to date, Latin America still shows positive results with a gain of 9.3 %. Asia was down 22 % while EMEA lost 6.4 % during the first six months.
All performance numbers are in US dollars with net dividends reinvested unless mentioned otherwise.
Only four markets included in the MSCI Emerging Markets universe rose last month, twenty-one markets declined.
Argentina (+14.2 %), Jordan (+8.4) and the Czech Republic (+2.1 %) delivered the highest monthly returns.
India (-19.6 %), the Philippines (-16.6 %) and Colombia (-15.9 %) performed worst.
Compared to their levels at the beginning of the year, eight markets were higher and seventeen markets were lower.
The biggest winners this year have been Argentina (+44.7 %), Morocco (+30.4 %), and Jordan (+15.1 %).
India (-41.4 %), Turkey (-39.3 %) and the Philippines (-38 %) have performed worst so far this year.
There is one change in Keppler’s performance ratings this month: Jordan is downgraded to “Sell” from “Neutral”.
This does not affect the Top Value Model Portfolio, however, which contains the eight national MSCI markets Hungary, Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey at equal weights.
According to Kepper’s performance ratings, these markets offer the highest expectation of risk-adjusted returns for long-term investors.
SELL CANDIDATES (Low Value) China , Egypt , India , Indonesia , Jordan, Morocco.
NEUTRALLY RATED MARKETS Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Israel, Mexico, Philippines, Pakistan, Peru, Russia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Venezuela,
According to Keppler’s performance ratings, these emerging stock markets offer the highest expectation of risk-adjusted returns.
For more details on Keppler’s analysis, contact Roderick Cameron at 1-212-245-4304 or email email@example.com
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