Emerging Stock Market Value Analysis

by | Mar 17, 2008 | Archives

Emerging Stock Market Value Analysis – February – March 2008.

Emerging stock market values are the best long term indicator of where to invest in the emerging stock markets.

One way we keep track of emerging stock market value is to follow the analysis of our friend, Michael Keppler.

Michael continually researches emerging stock market valuations and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each emerging stock market’s history.

From this he develops his Good Value Emerging Stock Market Strategy. His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short ups and downs.

He is, in my opinion, one of the best market statisticians in the world and numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds. In January, his company, Keppler Asset Management, was, for the third consecutive year, named Best Fund Company in the Fund Specialists’ category by Capital, a leading German business magazine. Keppler’s firm was one of only six out of 100 companies tested that received the highest five-star rating based on an independent evaluation of fund quality, management, and customer service by Feri Rating & Research and Steria Mummert Consulting.

Once a month we share Michael’s emerging stock market value analysis with you. Here is a summary of Keppler’s February, March 2008 current emerging stock market value comments on recent developments & outlook in emerging stock markets.

Emerging Markets equities recovered somewhat from their steep losses suffered in January and thus were able to weather the current crisis in capital markets better than their big brothers in the developed countries.

The MSCI Emerging Markets World Total Return Index (December 1988=100) advanced 7.4 % in US dollars and 4.7 % in euros.

Year-to-date, the global emerging markets benchmark is down 6 % in US dollars and 9.5 % in euros.

During the last fourteen months, the MSCI EM Index gained 31 % in US dollars and 13.8 % in euros.

By regions, Latin America gained 8.8 % in February, Asia was up 7.4 %, and Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) advanced 6.2 %.

Over the last fourteen months, Latin America was the best performer with a gain of 53.5 %, Asia came in with a total return of 29.8 % and EMEA gained 17.9 %.

Performance numbers are in US dollars unless mentioned otherwise.

Twenty-one markets in the MSCI Emerging Markets universe rose in February and four declined. Peru (+16.2 %), Taiwan (+14.8 %) and Thailand (+13.4 %) delivered the best performance.

The Philippines (-4.2 %), India (-2.4 %) and Malaysia (-0.3 %) provided the lowest monthly returns.

Over the previous fourteen months all but one of the twenty-five markets covered here rose.

The best performing countries were Peru (+115.7 %), Brazil (+84.5 %) and Egypt (+69.4 %).

There was only one losing market over the past fourteen months: Argentina declined by 3 %. Other relatively poor performers were Hungary (+2.4 %), Colombia (+7.7 %) and South Africa (+8.6 %).

Each of the other twenty-one markets delivered double-digit returns over the past fourteen months.

There are no changes in our Performance Ratings this month. The Top Value Model Portfolio contains Hungary, Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey at equal weights.

SELL CANDIDATES (Low Value) China , Egypt , India , Indonesia , Morocco.

NEUTRALLY RATED MARKETS Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Israel, Jordan, , Mexico, Philippines, Pakistan, Peru, Russia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Venezuela,

According to Keppler’s performance ratings, these emerging stock markets offer the highest expectation of risk-adjusted returns.

For more details on Keppler’s analysis, contact Roderick Cameron at 1-212-245-4304 or email roderick.cameron@kamny.com

You can get ideas on shares in these top value emerging stock markets from

Thomas Fischer at Jyske Bank at Fischer@jbpb.dk

Jyske Bank is the second largest Danish bank with 450,000 domestic clients, 35,000 international clients, USD 23 Billion in total assets, and a Moody’s rating of AA1. Jyske has over 35 years’ specialization in private banking and Denmark is ranked by Moody’s as one of the safest country in the world to have bank accounts.

Jyske Bank uses a good value system as well and their affiliated fund management company has been rated #1 by Morningstar. They use this value system to help us select shares for Multi-Currency Portfolio Educational

Tracking Service. This has worked pretty well. In 2006 the mainly equity portfolios we tracked rose 42.93% (Emerging Market) and 114.16% (Asia Emerging Market) in a year.

Here is the final 2007 one year performance of the portfolios we created and tracked with Jyske Bank and excerpts from the 2008 Portfolio Update #2 from our Multi Currency Educational Subscription.

“Portfolios 2007 Oct 31

Swiss Samba 53.32%
Emerging Market 122.62%
Dollar Short 48.19%
Dollar Neutral 38.67%
Green 266.30%

However the 2008 portfolios we are now tracking have not been immune from the 2008 turmoil and have dropped. Learn why and how much as a multi currency subscriber. See www.garyascott.com/catalog/bldh

Until next message, may all your global investments be good.


To learn more about multi currency investing join Merri, me and Thomas Fischer from Jyske Bank at our May 23-25 International Investing & Business Made EZ in North Carolina.

Details are at

An alternative to global stock market values are Ecuador real estate values. This is why we are conducting Ecuador real estate tours.

May we serve you in Ecuador? Gain a free report from our latest real estate tours.

See our coastal real estate report that looks at property $32,000 house just off the beach like this.

These tours are also fun! Here one of the delegates enjoys a view of the pacific as we ejoy a break at La Piedre in Bahia

La Piedre Ecuador real estate

To this cheese factory and hacienda that the owner states produces $600,000 a year.

You get free access to this report when you subscribe to Ecuador Living.

You can subscribe to Ecuador Living at www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-travel-and-living-service

April 16-17 and June 16-17 Ecuador Imbabura Real Estate Tour

June 7-8 Coastal Real Estate tour