Emerging Equity Markets

by | Feb 16, 2008 | Archives

Emerging Equity Market Value Analysis – January – February 2008.

Emerging equity market values are the best long term indicator of where to invest in the emerging sector.

One way we keep track of value is to follow the analysis of our friend, Michael Keppler.

Michael continually researches international emerging stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and

cash flow return. He compares each emerging stock market’s history. From this he develops his Good Value Emerging Stock Market Strategy. His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short ups and downs.

He is, in my opinion, one of the best market statisticians in the world and numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds. In January, his company, Keppler Asset Management, was, for the third

consecutive year, named Best Fund Company in the Fund Specialists’ category by Capital, a leading German business magazine. Keppler’s firm was one of only six out of 100 companies tested that received the highest five-star

rating based on an independent evaluation of fund quality, management, and customer service by Feri Rating & Research and Steria Mummert Consulting.

Once a month we share Michael’s emerging market analysis with you.

Here is a summary of Keppler’s current comments on recent developments & outlook in international emerging equity markets.

In January 2008, Emerging Markets suffered their worst monthly
decline since September 2001, when the MSCI Emerging
Markets Index lost 15.5 %. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1988=100) declined
12.5 % in US dollars and 13.6 % in euros. bringing the total returns over the last thirteen months to + 22 % in US dollars and + 8.6 % in euros.

Of the three main regions, Latin America stood out by losing only \
6.2 % in January for a +41 % total return in the last
thirteen months.

Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) declined 13.6 % in January, bringing down its 13-month returns to +11.1 % compared to a benchmark return of 22 % for the same period.

Asia was the weakest region of the month with a loss of 14.3 %. Its 13-month total return through the end of January 2008 — a respectable +20.9 % — nevertheless was not enough to
beat the MSCI Emerging Markets composite benchmark.

In US dollars two markets rose and twenty-three markets declined in January.

The best performers of the month were Morocco (+13.4 %), Jordan (+1.9 %) and Malaysia (-0.9 %).

Turkey (-23.6 %), China (-21.6 %) and Russia (-16.1 %) performed worst.

Over the last thirteen months, Peru performed best (+85.6 %), Morocco (+67.5 %) and Brazil (+64.7 %) came in second and third.

Argentina (-11.5 %), Taiwan (-3 %) and Hungary (+2.5 %) performed worst in the last thirteen months.

There is one change in our Performance Ratings this month: Hungary is upgraded to “Buy” from “Neutral” and added to the Top Value Model Portfolio.

In addition to Hungary, the Top Value Model Portfolio now contains Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey at equal weights.

According to our performance ratings, these markets offer the
highest expectation of risk-adjusted returns.

SELL CANDIDATES (Low Value) China , Egypt , India , Indonesia , Morocco ,.

NEUTRALLY RATED MARKETS Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Israel, Jordan, , Mexico, Philippines, Pakistan, Peru, Russia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Venezuela,

For more details on Keppler’s analysis, contact Roderick Cameron at 1-212-245-4304 or email roderick.cameron@kamny.com

You can get ideas on shares in these top value emerging stock markets from

Thomas Fischer at Jyske Bank at Fischer@jbpb.dk

Jyske Bank is the second largest Danish bank with 450,000 domestic clients, 35,000 international clients, USD 23 Billion in total assets, and a Moody’s rating of AA1. Jyske has over 35 years’ specialization in private banking

and Denmark is ranked by Moody’s as one of the safest country in the world to have bank accounts.

Jyske Bank uses a good value system as well and their affiliated fund management company has been rated #1 by Morningstar. They use this value system to help us select shares for Multi-Currency Portfolio Educational

Tracking Service. This has worked pretty well. In 2006 the mainly equity portfolios we tracked rose 42.93% (Emerging Market) and 114.16% (Asia Emerging Market) in a year.

Here is the final 2007 one year performance of the portfolios we created and tracked with Jyske Bank and excerpts from the 2008 Portfolio Update #2 from our Multi Currency Educational Subscription.

“Portfolios 2007 Oct 31

Swiss Samba 53.32%

Emerging Market 122.62%

Dollar Short 48.19%

Dollar Neutral 38.67%

Green 266.30%

However the 2008 portfolios we are now tracking have not been immune from the 2008 turmoil and have dropped.

Learn why and how much as a multi currency subscriber.

See https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/bldh

Until next message, may all your global investments be good.


To learn more about multi currency investing join us March 7-9 at International Investing and Business Made EZ  which will be conducted at our Ecuador hotel.
See https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/international-business-made-ez-ecuador

Mar. 10-11 Imbabura Real Estate tour.
See https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-tours-savings

Mar. 12-14 Coastal Real Estate tour.

Mar. 7-9 IBEZ and one or both real estate tours.