Recent messages have looked at historical economic patterns and show how wars (fighting or cold) create economic expansion.
Studies of social – economic – market cycles shows a post war boom about ever every 30 years, the first starting around 1865 after the War between the States.
The end of WWI saw the next post war boom that ran to 1929.
There was a nice postwar boom in 1946 through 1968 and WWIII rose when Ronald Reagan and Thatcher fought the Evil Empire.
The “all stops pulled” nature of war creates new technology that creates the boom after the war.
I have been stumped wondering who would struggle versus who next and a recent message looked at the chances that this next war could be between the US and Iran . I quoted a Washington newspaper which wrote:
“ WASHINGTON — President Bush planned to talk to reporters Wednesday about domestic issues. Instead, he spent the news conference mostly on foreign affairs, including his blunt assessment that a nuclear-armed Iran could lead to ‘World War III.”
The president is not expected to be the best student of history so he may have missed WWIII. We forgave that slip but lamented that we did not want to return to a MAD threatened lifestyle even with a tiny nation like Iran .
Now thankfully we see the President missed one other thing…that Iran had stopped their nuclear plans. Perhaps the government had been listening to the same people who told them about the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq ?
Whatever, our son, Jake, who works for the British Environmental Agency sent me some an AP article that suggests another potential foe…not one we would normally guess…globally warming.
The article said: “Think Tanks: Climate Change Could Pose Greatest National Security Risk. Climate change could be one of the greatest national security challenges ever faced by U.S. policy makers, according to a new joint study by two U.S. think tanks.
“Climate change is likely to breed new conflicts, but it already is magnifying existing problems, from the desertification of Darfur and competition for water in the Middle East to the disruptive monsoons in Asia , which increase the pressure for land, the report said.
“At the very least, the report said, the U.S. can expect more population migrations, both internally and from across its borders; a proliferation of diseases; greater conflict in weak states, especially in Africa where climates will change most drastically; and a restructuring in global power in line with the accessibility of natural resources.
“Left unchecked, the collapse and chaos associated with extreme climate change futures would destabilize virtually every aspect of modern life,” said the report, comparing the potential outcome with the Cold War doomsday scenarios of a nuclear holocaust.
“Climate change has the potential to be one of the greatest national security challenges that this or any other generation of policy makers is likely to confront,” said the report.
“The report listed 10 implications of climate change that policy makers should consider, including rising tensions between rich and poor nations, the backlash resulting from massive migrations, health problems partly caused by water shortages and crop failures, and concerns over nuclear proliferation as nations increasingly rely on nuclear energy.
“The global balance of power will shift unpredictably as trade patterns change, it said. China ‘s importance in the climate equation will grow as it increases emissions of greenhouse gases, and Russia ‘s influence will increase alongside its exports of natural gas, the report said.”
So perhaps the next war that will create our next economic boom will be mankind versus climate…not between nations. Would not this create the same “all stops pulled” rush to new technology that could change the way we live and every thing we do?
If so, look for the new boom coming!
This is one reason we are continuing to track the Green Portfolio in our Multi Currency portfolio course.
This portfolio rose 266.30% in the first year we created it and though it dropped 11.40% in the last month, we believe it still has enormous room for upwards potential because of this huge challenge to mankind.
You can get more details about this portfolio at www.garyascott.com/catalog/bldh
Here is an excerpt from our most recent Ecuador Living Excerpt.
“Hello. Gary ,
“Attached are some pictures you may want.
“The first is of Gaylynn and me at the flower market in Otavalo – where Gaylynn purchase one dozen roses, 3 tuberoses and some beautiful baby’s breath filler – for $3! I just talked to Gaylynn the other day and she said that “just now” the roses were beginning to fade – but she had a couple of week’s beauty from $3.00!
“The other picture is of me and the goats! Consuelo rushed in to tell me that the goat lady was here and that goat’s milk is good for asthma. I rushed out and for $1.00 – had the freshest goat milk imaginable as the lady milked the goat right in front of me!
“I realize that not everyone wants goat’s milk, but we did have that request from a recent guest at El Meson.
These are just other reasons why Ecuador is such a delightful place to be. No matter what you want…it is usually available and so often in this zany, wonderful, natural way.
“My first contact after reading your newsletters was to pay $1000 for a writing seminar – that week literally changed my life. I am now a 62, almost 63 year old world traveler who has experienced more life and new things than in the past ten years – all in little more than a year. My husband, who had never been outside the US now considers himself a world traveler. I literally dragged him down to Ecuador for three months – and we have hundreds of pictures, so many memories, met such wonderful people.
“Have a wonderful day. I am back in Colorado in a blizzard – and yearning for beautiful breakfasts at El Meson de las Flores !”
This is also why we love Ecuador ! We hope to see you there.
Learn more about an Ecuador Living subscription at https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ecuador-travel-and-living-service
Join Merri and me in Ecuador .
See the wonderful Cathedral next to our hotel. Day or ….
Mar. 10-11 Imbabura Real Estate tour