One way we keep track of value is to follow the analysis of our friend, Michael Keppler. Michael continually researches international major stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each major stock market’s history. From this he develops his Good Value Major Stock Market Strategy. His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short ups and downs.
He is in my opinion one of the best market statisticians in the world and numerous very large fund managers use his analysis to manage funds. In January, his company, Keppler Asset Management, was, for the third consecutive year, named Best Fund Company in the Fund Specialists’ category by Capital, a leading German business magazine. Keppler’s firm was one of only six out of 100 companies tested that received the highest five-star rating based on an independent evaluation of fund quality, management, and customer service by Feri Rating & Research and Steria Mummert Consulting.
Once a month we share Michael’s analysis with you.
Here is a summary of Keppler’s current comments on recent developments & outlook in international major markets.
Recent Developments & Outlook
Global equities declined in June after having made three consecutive new all-time highs in local currencies and in US dollars in March, April and May, while continuing to hover 14.8 % below their 2000 August high in euro terms.
In the month of June, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Total Return Index (with net dividends reinvested, December 1984=100) lost 1 % in local currencies, 0.8 % in US dollars and 1.1 % in euros.
Year-to-date, the MSCI World TR Index advanced 8.2 % in local currencies,
9.2 % in US dollars and 6.6 % in euros.
Six markets were up in June, twelve markets declined. Performance measurements are based on total returns with net dividends reinvested in local currencies, unless mentioned otherwise.
Norway led the monthly winners with a 3.5 % gain, followed by Germany and Hong Kong, which both advanced 1.5 %.
Among the decliners, Denmark (-3 %) stood out, followed by Spain (-2.8 %) and Switzerland (-2.5 %).
Year-to-date, all eighteen markets covered here had positive returns. While Singapore (+21.5 %) and Germany (+21.2 %) are leading the pack year-to-date, Norway, which had the number 1 spot in each of the previous two years, is not far behind with a 16.6 % total return during the first six months of this year.
The worst performers of the last six months were Italy (+2.7 %), Belgium (+6 %), and Switzerland (+6.1 %).
There is no change in our performance ratings this month. The Top Value Model Portfolio contains Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom at equal weights.
Our current ratings suggest that these markets continue to offer the highest expectation of risk-adjusted returns.
SELL CANDIDATES (Low Value) Austria, Canada, Denmark, Japan, Switzerland, U.S.A.
NEUTRALLY RATED MARKETS Australia, Hong Kong, Norway, Singapore, Sweden
For more details on Keppler’s analysis, contact Roderick Cameron at
1-212-245-4304 or email firstname.lastname@example.org
You can get ideas on shares in these top value emerging stock markets from Thomas Fischer at Jyske Bank at Fischer@jbpb.dk
Jyske Bank is the second largest Danish bank with 450,000 domestic clients, 35,000 international clients, USD 23 Billion in total assets, and a Moody’s rating of AA1. Jyske has over 35 years’ specialization in private banking and Denmark is ranked by Moody’s as the safest country in the world to have a bank account in.
Jyske Bank uses a good value system as well and their affiliated fund management company has been rated #1 by Morningstar. They use this value system to help us select shares for Multi-Currency Portfolio Educational Tracking Service. This has worked pretty well. In 2006 the mainly equity portfolios we tracked rose 42.93% (Emerging Market) and 114.16% (Asia Emerging Market) in a year. This year the five portfolios we track are up in the past seven months:
|Portfolios||Dec 29||Feb-26||Apr 30||June 8||July 10|
You can learn why this performance has taken place in a sixteen page email report about how 13 economic forces now clash to shape investments markets ahead that show the rewards and the risks. The report also outlines the five new Multi-Currency Portfolios we are tracking in our Borrow Low-Deposit High Multi-Currency Sandwich Educational Service. Details are at https://www.garyascott.com/catalog/bldh
Until next message, may all you global investments be good.
We hope to serve you at one of our upcoming courses or correspondence courses.
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