Many readers wrote to me expressing concern over the new president and Ecuador’s political situation. Will he be good or will he be bad? Who knows? I like what I have seen to date, but a bit over six years many Americans liked what they saw when George Bush was elected President in the US.
So there is always risk…everywhere. The question is what are the odds?
I like the odds in Ecuador but even more so in Cotacachi because of Ecuador’s political situation. One of Correa’s major Ecuador political bases is a large group of indigenous Ecuadorians. They have grown in power over the years and before Ecuador’s last election had a big pow wow to decide whether to run the Mayor of Cotacachi or to support Correa instead (who speaks Quichua, the indigenous language). In a shrewd, for Ecuador political move they supported Correa and he campaigned heavily in our area (and stayed at our hotel, Meson de las Flores).
Political reward time has come and the party has been given a brand new headquarters. Here it is.
This is two blocks from Meson de las Flores and three blocks from the land where we are having new condos built. Here I am on the land and you can see the headquarters in the background.
Here are my thoughts on the odds.
First, many people fear Correa and this will help keep prices down. This increases the odds of making a good profit.
Second, Correa may be good or bad but, the one thing he is least likely to do is interfere with private property rights. This would erode his political base very quickly. Our friend and attorney, Dr. Andres Cordova recently wrote the following:
“Even though Ecuador ’s new President, Rafael Correa, leans to the left, it is exceedingly unlikely under any scenario that Correa will in any way disturb private property rights. Our constitution and our legal system are very clear about private property being one of the pillars of our Economy. It’s a fundamental right that’s been with us since we became a Republic almost 200 years ago. Furthermore, the Ecuadorian Constitution expressly provides that there shall be no form of confiscation in Ecuador . With this to consider I see it as a very, very far stretch that the President may try to limit private property rights. I don’t think society would permit this nor that he’d want to do this.” This increases my odds more.
Third, even if Correa does try to infringe on some property rights, Cotacachi is less likely to suffer because of it’s political sway. This increases the odds a third time.
Finally though, I never forget the ultimate odds accelerator. Merri and I are doing what we love. We are enjoying this delightful society, the warm winter sun and the wonderful sweet people, the good food, the broadened horizons and low cost of living. Even if our investments in Ecuador were not to do well, we are having a lot of fun!
Until next message, may all your international investments be good.
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