Keppler Asset Management March 2007 International Emerging Market Value Analysis

by | Apr 18, 2007 | Archives

Keppler Asset Management was formed and is run by our friend, Michael Keppler, continually researches many emerging stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each major stock market’s history. From this he develops his Good Value Emerging Stock Market Strategy. His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short ups and downs.

Here is a summary of Keppler’s current comments on recent developments & outlook in international emerging markets.

Keppler Recent Developments & Outlook

“After drifting lower both in January and February, Emerging Markets equities turned around and reached new all-time highs at the end of the quarter. In March, the MSCI Emerging Markets World Total Return Index jumped 4 % in US dollars and 3.2 % in euros.

“During the first quarter, the emerging markets benchmark gained 2.3 % in US dollars and 1.3 % in euros. During the last fifteen months, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 35.1 % in US dollars and 19.8 % in Euros.

“Of the three regional indices, Latin America led with a monthly gain of 7.1% in March, followed by Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), which advanced 5.4%. Asia gained 2.1%. During the first quarter, Latin America stands out with a 6 % gain, versus EMEA (+3.7%) and Asia (+0.1%).

“Over the last 15 months Latin America (+51.8%) is in the lead, followed by Asia (+32.8%) and EMEA (+28.5%). Performance numbers are in US dollars unless mentioned otherwise.

“In March, twenty-two markets advanced and five declined. Two markets shone with double-digit monthly returns: Poland (+11.7%) and Venezuela (+13%).

The Czech Republic returned 9 % in March. Sri Lanka (-5.9%), Jordan (-5.6%) and Thailand (-3%) performed worst. Year-to-date, seventeen markets are higher and ten markets are lower.

“Peru (+25%), Morocco (+24.7%) and Malaysia (+18.3%) performed best year-to-date, while Venezuela (-11.2%), Colombia (-5.6%), India and Taiwan (both down 3.2%) came in last.

“In March, the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio, which invests according to the Top Value Strategy and assumes index returns for each national market included in the strategy, advanced 4.4% in US dollars and 3.6% in euros.

“Model Portfolio rose 7.4% in US dollars and 6.4 % in euros, outperforming the benchmark by 5.1 percentage points.

“During the last fifteen months, the Emerging Markets Top Value Model Portfolio gained 42.7 % in US dollars and 26.5 % in euros, outperforming the benchmark by 7.6 and 6.7 percentage points, depending on the currency.

“There is no change in our performance ratings this month. As of the end of March, the Top Value Model Portfolio contains the seven “buy” rated markets of Brazil, Korea, Malaysia, Poland, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey at equal weights. According to our performance ratings, these markets offer the highest expectation of risk-adjusted returns.”

For more details on Keppler’s analysis, contact Roderick Cameron at 1-212-245-4304 or email

You can get ideas on shares in these top value emerging stock markets from Thomas Fischer at Jyske Bank at

Jyske Bank uses a good value system as well and their affiliated fund management company has been rated #1 by Morningstar. They use this value system to help us select shares for Multi-Currency Portfolio Educational Tracking Service. This has worked pretty well. In 2006 the mainly equity portfolios we tracked rose 42.93% (Emerging Market) and 114.16% (Asia Emerging Market) in a year. This year the five portfolios we track are up in the past five and a half months:

Portfolios 2007 Since Nov. 1, 2007
Swiss Samba21.88%
Emerging Market22.80%
Dollar Short24.35%
Dollar Neutral20.92%

You can learn why this performance has taken place in a sixteen page email report about how 13 economic forces now clash to shape investments markets ahead that show the rewards and the risks. The report also outlines the five new Multi-Currency Portfolios we are tracking in our Borrow Low-Deposit High Multi-Currency Sandwich Educational Service. Details are at International Investments Course with Multi Currency Investments and Portfolios

At our upcoming IBEZ in N.C., we will update our latest multi currency portfolios and much more. Join us May 25 – 27, 2007 at the International Business and Investing Course in North Carolina . Thomas Fischer joins me to update global economics there. International Investments and International Business Course, West Jefferson, North Carolina, May 25-26-27, 2007

Jyske Bank is the second largest Danish bank, with 450,000 domestic clients, 35,000 international clients, USD 23 Billion in total assets, and a moody’s rating of A1.

We develop five portfolios for educational purposes once a year in cooperation with Jyske Bank’s Private Banking division.

Jyske Bank Private Banking division is a business unit of the Jyske Bank Group, and they cater exclusively for international private investors from 180 different countries. They have offices in Copenhagen, Switzerland and Gibraltar and Fuengirola, Cannes and Warsaw.

Jyske Bank is one of the most experienced currency trading banks in the world and trades 24 hours a day. Many banks use Jyske Bank as their currency trader.

Jyske has over 35 years’ specialization in private banking and Denmark is ranked by Moody’s as the safest country in the world to have a bank account in.

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Until next message, may all your international investments be good.


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