September 2004 Global Emerging Market Update
The Emerging Markets have not reached their highs from earlier this year. Eighteen and eight markets rated declined. The Latin America index was up 4.5%, the Europe Mid-East index gained 3.2% and the Asia index rose 4.6%.
The top three performing emerging markets were Egypt (up 11.4%), South Korea (up 9.5%) and the Russia (up 9.4%). For the year the top performer is Egypt (51.1%), Colombia (48.8%) and Hungary (37.2%).
Based on Keppler's analysis, the best value emerging markets for four months running are BRAZIL, CHILE, COLOMBIA, CZECH REPUBLIC, KOREA, PHILIPPINES, RUSSIA and SRI LANKA at equal weights.
You can get ideas on shares in these markets from Thomas Fischer at FISCHER@jyskebank.dk
Keppler currently rates EGYPT, INDIA, INDONESIA, ISRAEL, PAKISTAN, JORDAN, PERU and THAILAND as low value markets to reduce or avoid.
ARGENTINA, CHINA, HUNGARY, MALAYSIA, MEXICO, MOROCCO, POLAND, SOUTH AFRICA, TAIWAN, TURKEY AND VENEZUELA are neutrally rated markets.
The Emerging Markets Top Value Model portfolio which follows Keppler’s analysis has outperformed the Morgan Stanley Emerging Market benchmark by 15.6 percentage points in the last twelve months.
For more details on Keppler’s analysis, contact Michael Keppler at 1-212-245-4304.
Until next message, good investing.