Once a month eClub expert Michael Keppler looks at all emerging stock markets and determines which markets offer top value (buy candidates), low value (sell candidates) and which are neutral. This is the July 2004 update.
Friday's message looked at the top and low value major markets.
The Emerging Markets did not perform as well as major markets in June. Seventeen of the 27 markets rated declined. The Latin America index was up 3.4%, the Europe Mid-East index gained 2.2% and the Asia index down 1.4%.
The top three performing emerging markets were Turkey (up 7.5%), Sri Lanka (up 5.7%) and the Philippines (up 5.7%). For the year the top performer is Colombia (32%) Hungry (28.3%) and Venezuela (22.4%).
Based on Keppler's analysis, the best value emerging markets now are BRAZIL, CHILE, COLOMBIA, CZECH REPUBLIC, KOREA, PHILIPPINES, RUSSIA and SRI LANKA at equal weights.
You can get ideas on shares in these markets from Thomas Fischer at FISCHER@jyskebank.dk
Keppler currently rates EGYPT, INDIA, INDONESIA, ISRAEL, PAKISTAN, PERU, THAILAND as low value markets to reduce or avoid and has added JORDAN to this list.
ARGENTINA, CHINA, COLOMBIA, HUNGARY, MALAYSIA, MEXICO, MOROCCO, POLAND, SOUTH AFRICA, TAIWAN, TURKEY AND VENEZUELA are neutrally rated markets.
The Emerging Markets Top Value Model portfolio which follows Keppler’s analysis has outperformed the Morgan Stanley Emerging Market benchmark by 14.3 percentage points in the last twelve months.
For more details on Keppler’s analysis, contact Michael Keppler at 1-212-245-4304.
Until next message, good investing.