Best emerging markets

by | Mar 16, 2004 | Archives

Here is interesting emerging markets data from Michael Keppler and the Morgan Stanley and the MSCI Capital Index about the best emerging markets. Right now these are the Brazilian, Chilean, Colombian, Czech Republic, Korean, Philippine and Russian stock markets.

Emerging markets continued to have strong performance as the Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Index rose 3.5% during the month in U.S. dollar terms. This shows generally more performance than in the major markets as few of the currencies in emerging markets rise beyond the U.S. dollar. Most of the gain is in real market gain and not from the greenback devaluation.

Eighteen markets rose with the leaders being as shown below:

Colombia 20.4%
Egypt 18.4%
Sri Lanka 14.9%
Indonesia 10.2%
Korea 8.5%

Three markets have risen over 100% in the last 13 months

Venezuela 255.9%
Egypt 202.4%
Thailand 102.9%

eClub expert Michael Keppler looks at all foreign stock markets and compares every major market monthly looking at the current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return on equity compared to their average and relative vales and compares them to all other markets. Based on this research he determines which markets offer top value (buy candidates), low value (sell candidates) and which are neutral.

Recent messages looked at problems we face now regarding currency instability. When currencies are volatile, inflation tends to rise. One way to beat inflation is through higher returns. Emerging markets historically provide such gains.

Based on Kepplers analysis, the best value emerging markets now are BRAZIL, CHILE, COLOMBIA, CZECH REPUBLIC, KOREA, PHILIPPINES AND RUSSIA. Chile is a new addition to the buy list this month.

Tomorrows message looks at emerging markets to avoid.

Until then, good investing.