Top value equity markets

by | Mar 12, 2004 | Archives

Here is very interesting equity market data from Michael Keppler and the Morgan Stanley and their MSCI Capital Index about the best performing equity markets. Here we look at Michaels views on the Belgium stock market, Danish stock market, German stock market, Italian stock market, Dutch stock market and Norwegian stock market.

Over the past month global equities extended their monthly gains to four months running. This is in local currency terms. If you look in US dollar terms the markets have been rising for ten months now due to the fall in the value of the U.S. dollar.

The Morgan Stanley Capital Index rose 1.7% when measured in local currencies. It was up 1.6% for the month when measured in U.S. dollars and 3.2% in Euros.

In local currency terms, the three best performing markets were Austria, which rose 10.4% in a month, Hong Kong stock market up 9.9% and Sweden up 6.9%. The UK (down 2% in the month) and Australia (down 1.1%) were the only markets that declined. There have been no losing major markets in the past 13 months with the top performers being Hong Kong and Norway. See the top seven in US dollar terms below.

Austria – 70.7%
Sweden – 70.7%
Germany – 65.6%
Spain – 60.1%
Canada – 56.2%
Denmark – 56.1%
Hong Kong – 51.6%

eClub expert Michael Keppler looks at all foreign stock markets and compares every major market monthly looking at the current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return on equity compared to their average and relative vales and compares them to all other markets. Based on this research he determines which markets offer top value (buy candidates), low value (sell candidates) and which are neutral.

Based on this analysis he feels the best major markets for investing now (beginning March 2004) because they offer top value are the Belgium, Danish, German, Italian, Dutch and Norwegian stock markets.

You can see why when you look at some of the valuations that Keppler applies. For example the U.S. market currently has a 3.18 price to book valuation and 13.6 price to cash flow.

The top value markets are much lower as you see here.

    Country          Price/Book    Price/Cash flow
Belgium 1.94 7.9
Denmark 2.13 8.9
Germany 1.64 6.8
Italy 2.01 5.6
Netherlands 2.42 8.7
Norway 5.80 5.8

You can get ideas on shares in these markets from Thomas Fischer at

Next message lets at which markets are best for you beyond the statistics. Well look at the major markets which Keppler rates as low value markets to avoid.

Until then, good investing,