My studies of stock market movements over the past 100 years suggests that Wall Street and the global economy are in a 15 year downtrend. A more intensive review of markets from 1970 to date suggests that we are in the first of several 19 to 32 month upswings within this down trend (you can learn more about this and see charts of both the down trend and upswing at https://www.garyascott.com/archives/2002/11/21/696/index.html)
However eClub advisor Michale Keppler recently sent me this message which explains why the next six months could be the most bullish trend we’ll see in a few years.
Here is what Michael shared:
“Several weeks ago, you wrote about the seasonal behavior of stock prices. We have done extensive research on this subject and I am proud to announce that a shortened version of a major study which I have coauthored with our Director of Research, Dr. Xing Hong Xue, will be published in the Winter Issue of the Journal of Investing. In case I have not sent you our original study yet, please look at the attached PDF.
“Our research shows that basically in all major equity markets, nearly all returns are achieved from the beginning of November through the end of May. ….. and November has just started. So if you are bearish, history will not be on your side for the next six months.
All the best to you and Merri. Michael”
Michael’s message is certainly not bearish but investors should be aware of the longer term underlying downtrends. There is certainly opportunity in markets however. The emerging market mutual funds that follow Michael’s top value advice are having a great year. In dollar terms they are up about 40 % this year. Michael will speak at an investment conference in Munich next week and his message will be that Emerging Markets were the losers of the last 10 years and may very well be the winners of the next 10 years.
Micheal is President of Keppler Asset Management, Inc., New York, an SEC-registered investment management and advisory firm founded in 1992. The firm specializes in the development of value-oriented integrated portfolio approaches which focus on sophisticated asset allocation as well as market, sector, and stock selection strategies designed to exploit market inefficiencies in order to achieve above-average investment returns, while allowing for effective risk manage-ment through the implementation of the margin-of-safety concept and inter-national diversification.
Keppler Asset Management Inc. is investment advisor to institutional investors and helps manage 10 global/regional equity public mutual funds and one private placement. Since 1994, funds advised by Keppler have won eight Standard & Poor’s Micropal performance awards.
Michael is one of the best investment advisors I know. His firm, an SEC-registered investment management and advisory firm founded in 1992 specializes in the development of value-oriented integrated portfolio approaches which focus on sophisticated asset allocation as well as market, sector, and stock selection strategies designed to exploit market inefficiencies in order to achieve above-average investment returns, while allowing for effective risk management through the implementation of the margin-of-safety concept and inter-national diversification.
Michael has implemented his research results on both market selection and seasonality fully in his Omega Fund which is up 26.1 % through the end of September in USD terms and probably up more than 30 % as of the end of October. In this fund today they are about 170 % long in the most undervalued markets and
about 50 % short in the most overvalued markets. During the seasonally weak period between May and September they are about 80 % net long. Nevertheless they still managed to outperform the market, even though the seasonally weak 6-month period was unusually strong -obviously due to the fact that so much bearishness
has accumulated over the past years.
Those who would like to download Michael’s entire 54 page PDF report on seasonality just send me a note at email@example.com
The Omega fund is a private placement fund with a high minimum open to new investors only at the end of each month (one NAV calculation every month). For those who want detail on this contact Michael Keppler at email KAMNewYork@aol.com
Keppler Asset Management Inc.
350 West 57th Street
New York, N.Y. 10019
Tel. (212) 245-4304
Fax. (212) 262-8150