Swiss Portfolio Update

by | May 13, 2003 | Archives

Here is a global investment update from our Swiss eClub advisor, Andy Kaegi. This is especially important time to review your portfolios as we have moved into the first short-term recovery of this long-term bear trend that could last into 2010. Being aware now can help us liquidate positions we have been holding and help us understand that there are still enormous risks in equity markets as value is still low. Until next message, may your wealth be growing…Gary.

"As expected war in Iraq went smooth and swift. We saw a pre-war rally and up to a few days ago enjoyed a relief rally that I forecasted to be short lived. Yes, I still believe we are in a very much trading orientated market, where upswings and corrections continue to show larger swings with limited upward potential. The downside at present seems limited too and maybe we will not see the record lows of mid March again but the up and down moves are large enough for selling and buying. Therefore we continue to trade quite a few of our existing positions, reducing them with advancing markets and buying back in again at lower levels. An excerpt of our trading list is enclosed."First quarter earnings season is behind us too; some companies hit or surpassed expectations, some missed. As expectations were lowered again and again it actually should have been easy to meet targets but many still missed. Those doing reasonably well did it with cost cutting programs and laying off workers and not by expanding business. Our economies are clearly missing signs of growth and the stock markets must wait a little while longer. Re-election for President Bush is up at the end of next year only; so it is too early for stimulus programs now."Fear of SARS is another new element depressing confidence and growth. Already now it is costing South East Asian economies billions of dollars. Even me it cost a few thousand bucks taking a forced vacation in Thailand instead of continuing my business trip to Hong Kong and Singapore. I will reschedule those destinations for much later in the year again, but nobody knows whether SARS and its effects will be under control within reasonable time."The present trend of the gold price and the direction of the US currency are two other tiny clues hinting at which way we are going right now. Therefore it still is time for trading rather than buy and hold especially for these coming summer months. Good investing, Andreas Kaegi BPCS BUELACH PRIVATE CLIENTS SERVICES"


One great way to gain a global investment view is at Jyske Bank's upcoming international investment seminar in Copenhagen this August (links to Adobe Acrobat file).