Perfect Predictions

by | Jan 7, 2002 | Archives

Can some people see into the future?

We have a weatherman up here called Ray (you can seehis predictions at and two days ago he predicted snow tostart at 7 this morning. But yesterday turned out to be so wonderful, clear,and warm that we fired up two of our chiminerias and ate lunch on the deck overlooking Little Horse Creek. Ithought “yeah Ray sure doesn't know what he's talking about”. Startedworking about 5:30 this morning after my meditation and yoga and had dou8bts about Ray again.

“Doesn't look like snow to me.” Then I looked up from mycomputer screen about 7:30 and darn if everything wasn't covered insnow! Huge big, fluffy flakes coming down, three inches worth in a coupleof hours. Here are a couple of pictures of us at work on the farm in thesnow! image one and image two

That was accurate forecasting by Ray. I wish we could be so good at predicting theeconomic future! Actually Ray is a good weatherman and yet can barely be righthalf the time. This is because the weather (like theeconomy) are ruled by the butterfly effect “if a butterfly beats its wings inTokyo it affects the weather in New York”, (you can learn more about thiseffect in the book “Chaos-Making a New Science” by James Gleick.

These thoughts kept rumbling as Merri and I took a long walk in this newlycreated winter wonderland, everything so pure, flocked hemlocks, fieldsclean, road crunchy white, the hillsides brilliant, an icy nip on thefringes of our fur hats. That's when the realization came that thesepredictions do not matter. The newspaper is full of “whether the market is up ordown, why, etc”. This is true with the weather as well. The news does not help us predict accurately weather, economies or stock markets at all.

What does make it possible for us to have perfect predictions is our vision of how to serve and live in the hereand now regardless of the weather and or the vagaries of the economy ormarkets. With clear personal vision, regardless of events ( 90% of the population can be unemployed)we will still do well. With this sort of vision we can be in a snowstorm, on a sunny beach or get caught in the rainand still be happy, productive and living life to the full.

Yet sometimes we get so caught in the news and the predictions we forgetto look outside and see the beauty that is there. This is a shame sincewhether we are investing, running a business or just taking in life, wereally don't have that many moments to waste.This is why I refer you to the message at which points out these keys for financialsuccess and a happy life.

  1. Do what you like
  2. Realize that money isn't everything
  3. Work only with people you like
  4. Buy businesses, not stocks
  5. Invest only in what you understand
  6. Don't over diversify
  7. Keep looking for new opportunities
  8. Buy businesses you plan to keep for life
  9. Look for businesses that are available at a good price

But how do we get started when we feel down or trapped in the snow? We'lllook at one way to get a burst of energy in our next message. Untilthen, Good investing!